Vivek & Co.

Let me start with what can hardly be called a bold prediction: declared Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is not going to be President of the United States. 

But his candidacy for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, which he announced this week in a video (that is too long by about two minutes or so) is interesting.

Vivek Ramaswamy appears to be next in a long line of businesspeople who believed their business acumen translated well to the world of national politics. This idea never seems to work out very well for them.

Let’s start with Ross Perot, who made a bold run in 1992 against incumbent President George H.W. Bush and the then-Governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton. Little is probably remembered about the late Ross Perot today except the immaculate impression of him by SNL’s Dana Carvey (“Can I finish?”). A few of you might remember that he chose retired Navy Admiral James Stockdale – a Medal of Honor recipient and held for seven years as a prisoner of war in the infamous Hanoi Hilton. During the Vice Presidential debate with Dan Quayle and Al Gore he more or less made a mockery of the proceedings with the introductory line, “Who am I? Why am I here?” 

The truth is, Ross Perot made as credible a run for President of the United States as anyone has since. There was a brief time when he was ahead in polls in Texas and California. In late spring, he was pulling better than 13% from both Bush and Clinton in several primary states. When Perot managed to recruit Jimmy Carter’s former White House Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan and Ed Rollins, the ‘84 campaign manager for Ronald Reagan, political insiders began to take him seriously.  

In fact, in the run up to Election Day, Perot visited what was then called the Sun Dome in Tampa where he drew more than 10,000 supporters. The St. Petersburg Times headline of October 31 read: “Perot rally: No seats left”. 

Perot did himself no favors with his erratic behavior and his unfounded accusations that the Bush people were spying on him. He dropped out that summer, but then, strangely, got back in again around October. But by then, whatever lightning in a bottle he’d captured had dissipated for good. 

What made Perot so popular? It was all about his economic message. In 1992, America was coming out of a recession. Americans were waking up to the fact that the Reagan/Bush “trickle-down” economic policies weren’t working. Perot, despite his nasal Texas twang, was a fresh voice – was offering something different. In the end, Perot pulled almost 19% of the vote, but the people decided that the change they were looking for was embodied in the young governor from Arkansas. 

Perot would make another independent run again in 1996, only garnering around 9%.

Also in 1996, magazine publisher and businessman Steve Forbes took a shot at the nomination in the Republican primary. No one was ever going to catch the eventual nominee, Senator Bob Dole of Kansas – a World War II war hero and the Senate Majority Leader – but Forbes took 10% of the popular vote in the Republican primary that year, outpacing experienced politicians like Senators Richard Lugar and Phill Gramm.

Forbes (who went on to host an episode of SNL) would run for president again in 2000. He got 10 delegates at the convention, but was far behind John McCain, perennial loser Alan Keyes, and the Republican nominee, George W. Bush of Texas. 

In 1996 in particular, Forbes was never able to establish a policy foothold beyond his asinine flat tax proposal. People saw him as a one-issue candidate, not particularly dynamic, and sent him back to run his media empire. Also, the economy was doing well in 1996 and 2000. That is to say, there was less of a case for a business person than there might have been in tougher economic circumstances. Today you can find Steve Forbes on Twitter, tweeting one bad idea after another.    

We skipped the businessman cycle in 2004 and 2008. I guess you could make something of a case that Mitt Romney – who is now the junior Senator from Utah, then the Governor of Massachusetts – was a businessman who ran for president and got the Republican nomination in 2012. He founded the global management consulting firm Bain Capital and was the CEO for a number of years. But he ran for president on his record as the Massachusetts Governor. He also ran after President Obama had righted the national economy, and so, like Perot and Forbes in 1996, and Forbes in 2000, there was less of a case for a business leader to “run the country like a business.” 

Carly Fiorina, who ran for president in 2016, was the CEO of Hewlett-Packard (a position she was forced to resign, by the way). But prior to her presidential run, she ran for the U.S. Senate in California, nabbed the Republican nomination, and lost to incumbent Barbara Boxer. She heavily emphasized her business experience in the 2016 campaign, but I think she gave away the game as more of a politician than she perhaps wanted us to think when she agreed to be the running mate for Senator Ted Cruz. 

Lest you think all of these business-centric candidates are Republican, Democrats apparently tried to make up for it in 2020. First, there was Andrew Yang, who got trounced in the Democratic primary, later got trounced in his run for New York City Mayor, and then founded the Forward Party. Hedge fund manager Tom Steyer fared not much better. He went on to do climate change advocacy work and to found the national political organizing group Next Gen. Yes, Mike Bloomberg was Mayor of New York for more than a decade – 2002 to 2013 – but he was a successful businessman first. In the 2020 primary, he won around 60 delegates and the primary in American Samoa.

So, what makes Vivek Ramaswamy different from candidates like Ross Perot and Andrew Yang? 

First, it appears he is not running on an economic message. By the way, his op-ed announcing why he is running is behind a Wall Street Journal paywall, which, like the too-long announcement video, only highlights the need to have a competent campaign team in place. 

Mr. Ramaswamy founded a billion-dollar pharmaceutical company, Roivant Sciences. I am not at all clear that having founded a pharma company based in Basel, Switzerland will translate to the kind of business sensibility Americans may be looking for today. He is also the co-founder and executive chairman of Strive Asset Management, which is basically an investment company – you know, using the money of rich people to make more money. 

And it is through his work at Strive that he has developed something of a political platform: climate change denialism, and anti-woke-ness. He even wrote a book – Woke, Inc. – which decries modern interpretations of social, corporate and environmental governance, much of which the rest of the world is embracing. The idea is to take into account things like climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, and energy efficiency when it comes to running your company. These broad concepts ask company leaders to report on employee safety and health, working conditions, inclusion, diversity, and equity. And there are common-sense recommendations around preventing bribery and corruption, executive compensation, as well as cybersecurity and privacy practices. 

In other words, it means being a good global citizen as it relates to running your company.

Mr. Ramaswamy’s book and political platform are a Trumpian foot-stamp of frustration of these ideas discussed in the global public square and implemented for the public good (perhaps someone should visit Switzerland and take a closer look at Roivant). 

The social criticism is an interesting angle from a business leader. He could have made the case, as so many of his predecessors did, that the economy is not recovering quickly enough and that only he, some sort of business prodigy, can fix it. 

He chose to go in a different direction. That alone makes his candidacy interesting. 

Presidential campaigns are the big show in the major leagues. The problem business leaders have faced time and time again is that they bring Little League-level skills to the stadium, and then they get trounced by the pros. This GOP primary is growing already, and everyone expects it to grow more. Mr. Ramaswamy has spoken kindly of Donald Trump in the past. I doubt that will stop Trump from shredding him now. Nikki Haley is a seasoned pro at this, and she won’t let him off the hook. Asa Hutchinson is a former member of the House of Representatives and the former Governor of Arkansas. He won’t let Mr. Ramaswamy off easy, either. Everyone knows Mike Pompeo loves to throw an elbow. I can think of a dozen more politicians who are at the very least thinking about getting in. And that’s all before the coming Ron DeSantis juggernaut gets going. 

How far will Vivek Ramaswamy get in the 2024 GOP primary? I don’t know. History says he won’t get very far. 

But hey, I’ve been wrong before.